Zhou Du Observation 230203 | The starting point of shipping lies in policies-Qingdao Boxster International Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd

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Zhou Du Observation 230203 | The starting point of shipping lies in policies

Release time : 2023-02-03 Views : 3036times

In terms of dry bulk cargo, the domestic infrastructure demand has been released recently, the ore demand has improved on a month-on-month basis, and the freight rate of the headland market has continued to rise, and will remain high in the fourth quarter. In terms of containers, the continuous rise of CCFI has ended since September, and the pressure of callback has increased before the Christmas season. We believe that the entire shipping sector is still at the bottom of history, but in terms of rhythm, dry bulk cargo has stronger trading opportunities, and containers are facing the risk of re-release of transport capacity.

The competition for container ships is fierce, and the competition for global transport capacity is renewed
The battle for container ships began in Maersk. Maersk ordered 20 large ships with a cost of about 190 million US dollars each. In June 2013, the first 18000 TEU large ship was put into operation, which set off a wave of super ship disputes. China Shipping is the second shipping company to build 18000 TEU ships. Although the container shipping market is still in a downturn, China Shipping is still ordering five 18000 TEU ships. Even COSCO, which has the greatest risk of delisting, is also in the process of planning for a large ship. We believe that the dispute over large ships has further extended the container shipping cycle that should have ended, and a new round of dispute over transport capacity has resumed.

Better policy environment than better economic situation

The traditional opportunity of the shipping sector comes from the rebound of BDI brought by the improvement of the economic situation. First, Hong Kong shares took the lead, followed by A shares. However, the recent sharp rebound of BDI in Hong Kong shares has not changed. It is the theme of the free trade zone that has led to a small rebound in the A-share shipping sector. This fully shows that the overseas market is not very optimistic about the investment opportunities in the shipping sector brought by the rebound of BDI, but is more sensitive to policy. We believe that the current policy environment of the shipping industry is extremely bad. If the shipping relief policy is based on the shipbuilding industry, it will cause significant strategic risks to China's ocean shipping.

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